US divorce statistics: the real numbers (2026)

Everyone knows the statistic: half of all marriages end in divorce. It is repeated at weddings, in movies, and in arguments. It is also out of date. The real numbers tell a story of decline that most people have not caught up with.

The number that matters most

Demographers prefer the refined divorce rate, which measures divorces per 1,000 married women rather than per 1,000 people overall. By that measure, the National Center for Family and Marriage Research puts the 2022 rate at about 14.6, down from a peak of 22.6 in 1980. That is roughly a one third drop from the peak. The CDC's crude rate tells the same story, sitting near 2.4 divorces per 1,000 total population in recent years.

So where did 50 percent come from?

The half of marriages claim was a projection made when divorce was peaking in the late 1970s and early 1980s. If rates had stayed at that peak, the math would have worked out. They did not stay. For first marriages formed in recent decades, most researchers now estimate the lifetime divorce risk closer to 40 percent, and lower still for couples who marry after 25, have college degrees, or marry for the first time.

Who divorces, and when

Second and later marriages end at notably higher rates than first marriages.
Divorce risk peaks in the first decade of marriage and declines after.
The one age group where divorce is rising is older adults, the gray divorce trend.
Marrying later and marrying with more education both predict lower divorce risk.

What the decline actually means

Falling divorce is not the same as rising happiness. Fewer Americans marry at all, and those who do are older, more educated, and more financially settled, which selects for stability. Divorce did not stop happening; marriage became more selective. Around 670,000 American couples still divorce in a typical year.

If you are one of them, the process is more manageable than the headlines suggest. See how divorce works in your state in our state guides, what it costs with our cost calculator, and whether the simple path fits with our two-minute eligibility check.

Frequently asked questions

Do half of all marriages really end in divorce?

That figure came from projections made when divorce peaked around 1980. For marriages formed in recent decades, researchers generally put the lifetime risk lower, closer to 40 percent for first marriages, and it keeps declining.

What is the current US divorce rate?

The CDC's crude rate has hovered near 2.4 divorces per 1,000 total population in recent years. The more meaningful refined rate was about 14.6 divorces per 1,000 married women in 2022, per the National Center for Family and Marriage Research.

Are second marriages more likely to end in divorce?

Yes. Research consistently finds second and third marriages fail at higher rates than first marriages, though the exact figures vary by study.